Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities

Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species‐specific responses are resulting in community‐wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm‐adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index – the Community Temperature Index (CTI) – which measures the balance between low‐ and high‐temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22‐year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm‐adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America.     

Historical record of human impact in a lake of northern China: Magnetic susceptibility,nutrients, heavy metals and OCPs

The historical record (1859–2011) of magnetic susceptibility, total organic carbon, total nitrogen, δ¹³C_org, δ¹⁵N, As, Cd, Hg, Pb, and organochlorine pesticide (OCP) signatures in Baiyangdian Lake was used to analyze the water environmental changes due to human activities. The results indicate the following: the status of the lake approaches the background condition in 1859–1950s; the lake suffered increasing anthropogenic effects from the 1950s because of increasing human activities such as coal-fired power plant operations since 1958, fertilizer use in the agriculture and land transformation since the 1950s, steelmaking between the 1960s and 1970s, machinery manufacturing since the 1970s, use of petrol containing alky-lead since 1990; the lake has been in a contaminated condition since the 2000s. This study confirms that OCPs have been effectively controlled in the area, the level of nutrient and heavy metal pollution is increasing, coal-fired power plants are an important source of Hg, and the use of petrol containing alky-lead has accelerated the accumulation of Pb in the environment. The study indicates that magnetic susceptibility can be used as a rapid, simple, and non-destructive tool for assessment of organic and heavy metal pollution in the lake.     

Ecological and environmental effects of land use change in rapid urbanization: The case of hangzhou,China

Land use changes sharply under rapid urbanization, yet its ecological and environmental effects are often neglected in land use decisions. Using the case of Hangzhou, China, we analyze the ecological and environmental effects of land use changes, including ecosystem services value (ESV) and carbon emissions, based on Landsat TM images from 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014. We found significant ecological and environmental effects of land use changes under rapid urbanization. The value of ecosystem services in Hangzhou decreased from 546.7 million USD in 1995 to 448.97 million USD in 2014, and the ratio of ESV to GDP decreased from 5.8% to 0.6%. The net carbon emissions associated with land use changes increased from 4.26 million tons in 1995 to 15.10 million tons in 2014, mainly due to the increase of built-up land carbon emissions and the decrease of forest land carbon sink. The ESV is unevenly distributed spatially and low ESV spread from the central to the peripheral area. We use scenario analysis to illustrate that economic growth and environmental protection could be coordinated by bringing ecological and environmental effects into land use decisions.     

Climatic change and its ecological implications at a subantarctic island

Summary Marion Island (47°S, 38°E) has one of the most oceanic climates on earth, with consistently low air temperatures, high precipitation, constantly high humidity, and low incident radiation. Since 1968 mean surface air temperature has increased significantly, by 0.025° C year^–1. This was strongly associated with corresponding changes in sea surface temperature but only weakly, or not at all, with variations in radiation and precipitation. We suggest that changing sealevel (atmospheric and oceanic) circulation patterns in the region underlie all of these changes. Sub-Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by being species-poor and having a simple trophic structure. Marion Island is no exception and a scenario is presented of the implications of climatic change for the structure and functioning of its ecosystem. Primary production on the island is high and consequently the vegetation has a large annual requirement for nutrients. There are no macroherbivores and even the insects play only a small role as herbivores, so most of the energy and nutrients incorporated in primary production go through a detritus, rather than grazing, cycle. Ameliorating temperatures and increasing CO₂ levels are expected to increase productivity and nutrient demand even further. However, most of the plant communities occur on soils which have especially low available levels of nutrients and nutrient mineralization from organic reserves is the main bottleneck in nutrient cycling and primary production. Increasing temperatures will not significantly enhance microbially-mediated mineralization rates since soil microbiological processes on the island are strongly limited by waterlogging, rather than by temperature. The island supports large numbers of soil macro-arthropods, which are responsible for most of the nutrient release from peat and litter. The activities of these animals are strongly temperature dependent and increasing temperature will result in enhanced nutrient availability, allowing the potential for increased primary production due to elevated temperature and CO₂ levels to be realized. However, housemice occur on the island and have an important influence on the ecosystem, mainly by feeding on soil invertebrates. The mouse population is strongly temperature-limited and appears to be increasing, possibly as a result of ameliorating temperatures. We suggest that an increasing mouse population, through enhanced predation pressure on soil invertebrates, will decrease overall rates of nutrient cycling and cause imbalances between primary production and decomposition. This, along with more direct effects of mice (e.g. granivory) has important implications for vegetation succession and ecosystem structure and functioning on the island. Some of these are already apparent from comparisons with nearby Prince Edward Island where mice do not occur. Other implications of climatic change for the island are presented which emphasize the very marked influences that invasive organisms have on ecosystem structure and functioning. We suggest that changing sealevel circulation patterns, by allowing opportunities for colonization by new biota, may have an even more important influence on terrestrial sub-Antarctic ecosystems than is suggested merely on the basis of associated changes in temperature or precipitation.     

Increase in body size is correlated to warmer winters in a passerine bird as inferred from time series data

Climate change is expected to affect natural populations in many ways. One way of getting an understanding of the effects of a changing climate is to analyze time series of natural populations. Therefore, we analyzed time series of 25 and 20 years, respectively, in two populations of the citril finch (Carduelis citrinella) to understand the background of a dramatic increase in wing length in this species over this period, ranging between 1.3 and 2.9 phenotypic standard deviations. We found that the increase in wing length is closely correlated to warmer winters and in one case to rain in relation to temperature in the summer. In order to understand the process of change, we implemented seven simulation models, ranging from two nonadaptive models (drift and sampling), and five adaptive models with selection and/or phenotypic plasticity involved and tested these models against the time series of males and females from the two population separately. The nonadaptive models were rejected in each case, but the results were mixed when it comes to the adaptive models. The difference in fit of the models was sometimes not significant indicating that the models were not different enough. In conclusion, the dramatic change in mean wing length can best be explained as an adaptive response to a changing climate.     

Ancient woodland indicators signal the climate change risk for dispersal-limited species

The climate change risk to biodiversity operates alongside a range of anthropogenic pressures. These include habitat loss and fragmentation, which may prevent species from migrating between isolated habitat patches in order to track their suitable climate space. Predictive modelling has advanced in scope and complexity to integrate: (i) projected shifts in climate suitability, with (ii) spatial patterns of landscape habitat quality and rates of dispersal. This improved ecological realism is suited to data-rich model species, though its broader generalisation comes with accumulated uncertainties, e.g. incomplete knowledge of species response to variable habitat quality, parameterisation of dispersal kernels etc. This study adopts ancient woodland indicator species (lichen epiphytes) as a guild that couples relative simplicity with biological rigour. Subjectively-assigned indicator species were statistically tested against a binary habitat map of woodlands of known continuity (>250 yr), and bioclimatic models were used to demonstrate trends in their increased/decreased environmental suitability under conditions of ‘no dispersal’. Given the expectation of rapid climate change on ecological time-scales, no dispersal for ancient woodland indicators becomes a plausible assumption. The risk to ancient woodland indicators is spatially structured (greater in a relative continental compared to an oceanic climatic zone), though regional differences are weakened by significant variation (within regions) in woodland extent. As a corollary, ancient woodland indicators that are sensitive to projected climate change scenarios may be excellent targets for monitoring climate change impacts for biodiversity at a site-scale, including the outcome of strategic habitat management (climate change adaptation) designed to offset risk for dispersal-limited species.     

Effect of temperature on woodwasp (Sirex noctilio F.) development and parasitism by the entomopathogenic nematode,Deladenus siricidicola

The woodwasp, Sirex noctilio, is a significant global pest of exotic pine plantations in the Southern Hemisphere and now threatens native pine forests in North America. Management in Australia relies on biocontrol using the nematode, Deladenus (= Beddingia) siricidicola (Bedding), which infects and sterilises females who then further disperse the nematode. This pest is spreading into warmer regions in Australia and South America and coupled with the threat of global climate change, there is uncertainty as to how increasing temperatures will affect the biocontrol program. S. noctilio within nematode-inoculated wood were reared at four temperatures (24, 25.3, 26.6 and 28 °C) to investigate the effects of elevated temperatures on wasp development (emergence time, sex ratio and size), development of eggs (number, size, and maturation) and infection by the nematode. At 24 °C, which reflects current field temperature, S. noctilio were bigger in size and all the eggs were normal and all were infected with nematodes. Modest rises in temperature reflecting climate change scenarios resulted in smaller sized S. noctilio, disrupted egg development and maturation, and lowered the nematode sterilisation rate in females. Reduced S. noctilio female body size and egg infection will likely compromise biocontrol by D. siricidicola in its current distribution, but disrupted egg development may act directly on the pest, limiting dispersal of S. noctilio into subtropical pine plantations and adaptation to climate change.